DYNAMIC GENERAL ECONOMIC MODELING COURSE

发布日期：2013/04/11　　来源： ccap

DYNAMIC GENERAL ECONOMIC MODELING COURSE BEIJING 6-14 July 2013   Jointly organised by Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS), Monash University and Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences   COURSE INFORMATION For inquires, contact: Yinhua Mai (Yinhua.Mai@BusEco.monash.edu.au) Yang Jun (yjydy.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn)   Introduction The Centre of Policy Studies and the Centre for Chinese Agricultural Policy will offer an intensive eight-day training course introducing participants to MONASH-style dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling and to the GEMPACK software used to solve dynamic CGE models (RunDynam). The course will be conducted in Beijing during 6-14 July 2013. The course will mostly be lectured in Mandarin. CGE modelling has become a widely applied tool for policy analysis on a broad range of issues, such as: ·        Regional migration and international immigration; ·        Direct and indirect tax reform; ·        Catastrophic events such as terrorist attacks and global pandemics. The Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) is a world leading research centre in applied general equilibrium modelling. Our model and software are used by researchers in over 500 different locations in 60 or so countries around the world. MONASH-style dynamic models are developed with attentions to details in economic and social structures and realistic baseline. They are therefore widely applied in facilitating policy decisions by various government agencies and international organisations. The quality of the CGE analyses depends on the skills of the analysts. CoPS is committed to support such policy-making process by providing technical support to researchers interested in developing CGE modelling skills. In our forty years’ innovation and training in the CGE field, we have come to understand the most efficient way in learning the art of CGE modelling. The path involves three stages: 1.      Stage 3: Developing your own model by adding new modules and relevant database to CHINAGEM to advance your institute’s policy research. This stage requires your institute’s modelling team to have significant mathematical and economic background. CoPS offers consultation services at this stage to provide technical support. 4.<span times="" new="" roman'"="">      Stage 4: The ultimate skill in CGE modelling is the art of using CGE models as a thinking framework for policy and economic analysis. The key to this is the Back-Of-The-Envelop model technique that is introduced and reinforced throughout CoPS’ training courses and consultation services.   Rationale for the Dynamic GE Modeling Course The course should appeal to those needing background in order to work with, or understand results from, a typical MONASH-style dynamic CGE model like CHINAGEM (中国星); those wishing to use the theory of MONASH-style dynamic CGE model with GEMPACK as the basis for a model of a country other than China; those wishing to get sufficient background in order to learn about multi-regional, multi-country, dynamic and/or forecasting models. Examples of such models are the Monash-Multi-Country model, SICGE model of China, MONASH or MMRF models of Australia or the USAGE model of USA; and those wishing to learn the art of applying CGE modeling for practical policy purposes.   Course Outline The course aims to introduce participants to the ideas and techniques of MONASH-style dynamic CGE modelling, and to equip them to start using, adapting or constructing CGE models for their own simulations. The course offers in-depth training in the following aspects of dynamic modelling: the theory underlying MONASH-style dynamic CGE models; how to use different types of closures to gain insights into how the Chinese economy evolves over time and the economic and social effects of various policy and other exogenous changes; the data requirements of a typical MONASH-style dynamic CGE model; formulating exogenous scenarios; computing simulations for policy analysis using RunDynam (software for running dynamic models); interpreting and reporting results using Back-Of-The-Envelop model technique.   Beijing July 2013 Dynamic GE Modeling Course Program The course program will consist of lectures integrated with extensive hands-on experience with GEMPACK and RunDynam using a dynamic CGE model of China. Participants in this course will need to bring their own notebook computer (for notebook requirements, see http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/laptops.htm). The course material and program are as follows.   Saturday 6 July 2013: 8.30am – 5.30pm
Lectures: Introduction: Monash style dynamic modelling Input-output data and initial solution Computing: CGE database structure     Sunday 7 July 2013: 8.30am – 5.30pm
Lectures: Theoretical structure of CHINAGEM: producer, capital creation, household demand, and other final demands, and market clearing.
Computing: Comparative static simulations     Monday 8 July 2013: 8.30am – 5.30pm
Lectures: Theoretical structure of CHINAGEM: purchaser prices and macroeconomic aggregates. Dynamic equations: capital market
Computing: Baseline simulation

    Tuesday 9 July 2013: 8.30am – 5.30pm
Lectures: Dynamic equations: labour market, net foreign liabilities, and technical change.
Computing: Policy simulation Group simulation allocation

    Wednesday 10 July 2013
Course break and course dinner.     Thursday 11 July 2013 8.30am – 5.30pm Lectures: How to conduct historical and forecast simulations. Computing: Group simulation: step by step historical simulation.     Friday 12 July 2013: 8.30am – 5.30pm
Lecture: How to analyse macroeconomic and industry results. Group simulations: scenario analyses     Saturday 13 July 2013: 8.30am – 5.30pm
Group simulations: scenario analyses.     Sunday 14 July 2013: 8.30am – 5.30pm
Group simulations: group presentation.         Documentation and Software Course participants receive course materials containing course notes and lecture slides; exercises to be completed in computing sessions; documentation of MONASH-style dynamic model and data; instructions for installing and using GEMPACK and RunDynam. Each participant will receive a CD, containing an Executable-Image version of the latest GEMPACK software which will allow them to run RunDynam on any modern Windows PC; PDF files containing the complete GEMPACK and RunDynam documentation; an individual GEMPACK and RunDynam licence for the above software valid for 6 months; all computer files needed to run a training-course version dynamic model of China; a CD image of the entire CoPS website, containing many example models, working papers, and utility programs.   Assumed Background We expect that course participants have: a bachelor or master degree in Economics, or equivalent work experience; experience of using a PC or notebook running Windows; a desire to learn about CGE modeling.   Preparing for the course You should study some material prior to the course. Download and work through the MINIMAL course material (http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/minimal.htm). The MINIMAL model and course are simplified versions of the ORANI-G model and course -- and use similar notation and software. To go further, you could: download and read the ORANI-G document, which you can find at the top of ORANI-G page(http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/oranig.htm); download and experiment with the free Demonstration Version of GEMPACK (http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/gpdemo.htm).   Course Fees Beijing 2013 The training course charge is A$2100 per person. The fee covers lectures, computing sessions, course materials (including software), morning and afternoon teas, and one course dinner.   Venue and Accommodation   Course Venue:    Conference Room 2209, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Jia, No. 11, Datun road, Anwai Beijing 100101 China.     For information regarding accommodation near the course venue contact: Wang Li 010-64888601 Email: wangl.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn  
DYNAMIC GE MODELLING COURSE BEIJING 6-14 July 2013   Jointly organised by Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University, and Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences   COURSE REGISTRATION Attention: Louise Pinchen (Louise.Pinchen@BusEco.monash.edu.au) Please copy email to: Yinhua Mai (Yinhua.Mai@buseco.monash.edu.au)              Yang Jun (yjydy.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn)     PLEASE PRINT CLEARLY Name                                                                                                                                                      Address of Institution                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Phone and Fax                                                                                                                                         Email                                                                                                                                                                                                             Course fee AUS $                                           __Please invoice me/my department (print contacts below if different from above) Contact Name                                                                                                                                         Address of Institution                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Phone and Fax                                                                                                                                         Email                                                                                                                                                                                                           __Please debit my credit card:  oMasterCard oVisaoBankcard           Credit Card No:  __ __ __ ____ __ __ ____ __ __ ____ __ __ __ Cardholders Name                                                                                                                                   Expiry Date                                                                                                                                              Signature                                                                                                                                                    ELECTRONIC FUNDS TRANSFERS (EFT) DETAILS:   BENEFICIARY NAME AND BANK ACCOUNT NUMBER:   BENEFICIARY NAME:                                MONASH UNIVERSITY BENEFICIARY ADDRESS:                           710 BLACKBURN RD, CLAYTON, VIC, AUSTRALIA 3168 BANK ACCOUNT NAME:                           MONASH UNIVERSITY GENERAL ACCOUNT         BANK:                                                              WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION BANK BRANCH:                                           UNION BUILDING, MONASH UNIVERSITY, WELLINGTON ROAD, CLAYTON, VIC 3168 AUSTRALIA BANK BRANCH PHONE:                             03 9905 5027 BSB NUMBER:                                               033-289                     BANK ACCOUNT NUMBER:                     630759 SWIFT CODE/ BANK TRANSIT NO:   WPACAU2S IBAN NUMBER                                              033289630759   SEND REMITTANCE ADVICE TO:   NAME:                                                             MONASH UNIVERSITY   ADDRESS:                                                       MONASH UNIVERSITY            CORPORATE FINANCE DIVISION,                                                                            710 BLACKBURN ROAD, CLAYTON 3168 FAX:                                                                03 9905 6358 PHONE:                                                            03 9905 6347 EMAIL:                                                            corporate-banking@adm.monash.edu.au ABN:                                  12 377614012   ****************************************************************************************** YOUR ACCOUNT WILL NOT BE FINALISED UNTIL YOU COMPLETE THE FOLLOWING STEPS.   Please email the following information back to Louise.Pinchen@buseco.monash.edu.au   when the money has been transferred. Please note your account will not be finalised until the money has been received and identified.   Also please attach an electronic copy of any documentation available as proof of payment.   ELECTRONIC FUNDS TRANSFER   (a) Name of Remitter:  (b) Amount:  (c) Type of currency:  (d) Originating bank:  (e) Date expected:  (f) Reference: Dynamic GE Modeling Course, Beijing 19-24 April 2010


beijing 2013 course info and registration form.doc