Researcher Kaixing Huang published an article in Economic Inquiry analyzing the long-term economic impacts of low fertility rates

Release date：2024/09/09　　Source： CCAP

Recently, researcher Kaixing Huang published a solo-authored paper in the prestigious international economics journal Economic Inquiry, analyzing the impact of fertility rates on long-term economic growth. Existing studies generally suggest that higher fertility rates have either a negative or insignificant effect on economic growth. However, this may be due to the failure to capture the long-term lag effects of fertility rates. Using data from 137 countries and employing a long-term distributed lag model, the study finds that while higher fertility rates slow economic growth in the short term, they significantly promote economic growth in the long run, with the long-term average effect being significantly positive. This finding holds true across countries with varying levels of economic development, as well as when considering the exogenous fertility shocks from global family planning campaigns and the changes in fertility rates caused by China’s one-child policy.

Article citation: Kaixing Huang. 2024. "Fertility and Long‐Term Economic Growth," Economic Inquiry (2024).
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13216

Full text link: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ecin.13216